“Exploring 200 years of U.S. commodity market integration: A structural time series model approach,” Explorations in Economic History, April 2023, Vol. 88, No. 1.
This paper uses a structural time series model to explore U.S. commodity market convergence, efficiency, and intertemporal smoothing from 1750-1949. I find near-continuous convergence that is largely concentrated in the frontier, broad antebellum efficiency gains, and intertemporal smoothing from the 1880s onward among the most perishable goods. The results reveal new periods of integration across all three metrics and underscore the rapid rate of integration on the frontier.
“Putting the News in New York and New Orleans: The Impact of Information Frictions on Trade” (Under Review)
This paper estimates the impact of information frictions on trade by exploiting the 1848 telegraphic connection between New Orleans and New York. A benefit of this experiment is that it is not subject to the aftershocks of the American Civil War that were concurrent with the laying of the transatlantic telegraph. I find impacts roughly one-third lower than in previous literature, with each day of delayed news leading to an increase in export volatility of 6.7 percent, an increase in exports of 5.7 percent, a decrease in the volatility of shipping-lagged lagged price differentials by 4.0 percent, and a decrease in deadweight losses of 8.7 percent.
Sugar Highs and Sugar Lows: U.S. Interwar Tariff Policy and Cuba’s Great Depression (with Mario Crucini)
Work in Progress
The United States imposed high and nominally rigid duties on Cuban sugar in an effort to protect the domestic beet industry. World War I inflation and Great Depression deflation, combined with legislative revisions, resulted in massive variability in the ad-valorem-equivalent rate. Because Cuba was highly dependent on the U.S. market, these tariff variations had large effects on the US-Cuban terms of trade. We study these terms of trade effects on the Cuban macroeconomy as well as on the economies of US states (and counties) highly dependent on beet farming and beet sugar refining. Due to their large variation and concentrated income effects across US and Cuban producers, interwar tariff policies provide a unique lens into the distributive effects of protectionism both internationally and within the US.
“Re-Righting the Law: The Impact of the 1975 VRA on Language Minorities” (with Aaron Gamino)
Work in Progress
The 1975 Voting Rights Act extended voting protections to language minorities. We employ a triple difference design to find that it promoted both voting rates and elected representation among language minorities. This, in turn, increased their share of educational funds and average incomes. We find these results are primarily driven by the VRA’s preclearance provision which prevented covered counties from facing the same erosion in voting rights as uncovered counties. These findings suggest the Supreme Court’s effective repeal of preclearance in 2013 could have long run negative consequences for minority groups.
“The Many Sources of Variation in Real Tariff Rates: The United States, 1914-1934” (with Mario Crucini)
Work in Progress
Before WWII, U.S. tariffs consisted of a mix of ad-valorem and specific (nominal) tariffs. The inflation following WWI made the specific tariffs less onerous (in ad-valorem equivalent terms) while the deflation during the Great Depression made specific tariffs more onerous. Meanwhile, ad-valorem tariffs remained the same. This paper uses a newly digitized dataset of 4,000 tariffs from 1914-1934 to examine how these nominal distortions affected intra-industry import allocations across commodities. We find that much of the fall in ad-valorem-equivalent tariffs falling WWI were a consequence of these nominal distortions while they accounted for most of the rise during the Great Depression. The import allocation results are forthcoming, but they promise to (i) shine a light on commodity import behaviors during the interwar years (ii) provide evidence on the impacts of an endogenous protective tariff.
“How States’ Allowances for Self-Distribution Affect Craft Brewery Output” (with Darrell Glaser)
Work in Progress
Before WWII, U.S. tariffs consisted of a mix of ad-valorem and specific (nominal) tariffs. The inflation following WWI made the specific tariffs less onerous (in ad-valorem equivalent terms) while the deflation during the Great Depression made specific tariffs more onerous. Meanwhile, ad-valorem tariffs remained the same. This paper uses a newly digitized dataset of 4,000 tariffs from 1914-1934 to examine how these nominal distortions affected intra-industry import allocations across commodities. We find that much of the fall in ad-valorem-equivalent tariffs falling WWI were a consequence of these nominal distortions while they accounted for most of the rise during the Great Depression. The import allocation results are forthcoming, but they promise to (i) shine a light on commodity import behaviors during the interwar years (ii) provide evidence on the impacts of an endogenous protective tariff.
James Harrison 